Back in spring training when we were previewing each division, my view of the National League Central Division was that it was anybody’s game where anybody could win. That was also to say that this probably would be the end of the two-season run as NL Central champions for the Milwaukee Brewers. Here’s my reasoning below:
If they’re going to do it again in 2024 then it’ll be a bit of an upset because it appears that they’ve fallen right back into the pack after the offseason that they had. Corbin Burnes is in Baltimore now and Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss the entire season as he recovers from shoulder surgery. They also lost their manager to their rivals on the North Side of Chicago, as the Cubs snatched away Craig Counsell almost immediately after his contract with the Brewers expired. That’s a lot to lose in a division that’s as wide open as the NL Central is.
Well, here we are in mid-June and it’s looking like this division may not be as wide open as I had expected it to be. While there are still plenty of questions as to whether or not any of the other four teams in the NL Central will have what it takes to go on the type of run that could propel them into the Postseason, it’s obvious who currently has the massive upper hand when it comes to winning the division. As it turns out, the more things change, the more they stay the same — manager Pat Murphy’s Milwaukee Brewers once again look like they’re the class of the NL Central.
Heading into this season, the Brewers were only given the third-best odds from FanGraphs to win the division at 18 percent. They were given a 30 percent shot to make the Postseason, which is a perfectly fine chance to have going into any season but it was definitely a bit low for a club that had made it to the Postseason in five of the past six seasons.
Now, Brewers fans can’t complain about the odds being against them since their team has surged their way into the position of being massive favorites. Heading into action on June 20, the Brewers are now being given a whopping 73 percent chance to make it three divisional titles in a row and are also being given an 86 percent shot to make the playoffs either way. Most importantly, the Brewers 44-30 and are 7.5 games ahead of the Cardinals for first place in the Central and also hold the second-largest divisional lead in the National League.
While a lot of this may have to do with the fact that the Cubs and Cardinals both have yet to really put it together like most observers expected them to, it also has to do with the fact that maybe the Brewers themselves didn’t get the memo that they were supposed to fade away into the pack. At the very least, Willy Adames and William Contreras both definitely missed the memo as both of them have been fantastic in Milwaukee’s lineup so far this season.
Willy Adames in particular has been killing it both at the plate but out in the field as well. Adames currently has a wRC+ of 118 to go with a wOBA of .336 and 12 home runs as well. If he can keep on producing at the plate at this rate, then he’ll be celebrating a career year once the season ends. Combine that with the fact that he’s currently in the 98th percentile of all fielders when it comes to Outs Above Average and you’ve got a player who has been the total package for the Brewers here in 2024. Adames has rarely had a season where he’s put it together with both his bat and his glove so it’s definitely encouraging for Milwaukee that this appears to be the year where it’s all connecting in his favor.
Meanwhile, William Contreras has simply just been mashing the ball like crazy this season. If he’s made contact with a ball, there’s a very good chance that it’s going to fly long and far and get to where it’s going in a hurry. Contreras is in the 95th percentile of all hitters when it comes to both Average Exit Velocity (93.1 mph) and Hard-Hit percentage (53 percent). Combined with his 89th percentile average bat speed and suddenly it’s easy to envision how Contreras got to a point where he’s sporting a 134 wRC+, which is second-best among all qualified catchers and only one point behind Salvador Perez for first place. While Wild Bill’s defense has taken a step back compared to where he was at last season, you aren’t going to hear anybody in Milwaukee complain about what he’s been doing with the bat this season.
Adames and Contreras haven’t been the only ones killing it for Milwaukee this season. Joey Ortiz has gone from struggling mightily in his first 34 big league plate appearances back in 2023 as a member of the Orioles to succeeding wildly as a breakout candidate for the Brewers. He might be doing it in a weird way (and for more on that, check out this article from Ben Clemens of FanGraphs) but you aren’t going to hear about anybody trying to “fix” what he’s doing when it’s working to the tune of a .369 wOBA and a 140 wRC+ so far. Brice Turang has also turned things around in a major way, though he didn’t have a change of scenery like Ortiz did. Instead, he appears to have found his footing in the bigs and is now sitting on a .328 wOBA and 112 wRC+ after struggling through 137 games with a 60 wRC+ in 2023. It also helps that Turang has been a terror to deal with on the basepaths as well, as he’s already stolen 26 bases this season.
The Brewers have also been getting positive contributions in the outfield from guys like Blake Perkins (and his 97th percentile-rated OAA) and even Christian Yelich. As it turns out, his resurgent 2023 campaign wasn’t just a flash in the pan and Yelich looks primed to improve upon a season that saw him start to look like the old dynamo that was playing MVP-caliber baseball just a few years ago. Yelich’s wOBA is currently at a lofty .394 and his wRC+ is at 157, which is easily as high as it’s been since the halcyon days of 2018 and 2019 when he was truly among the game’s elite players. While Yelich probably won’t fully return to that level again, the Brewers don’t need him to be a world-beater — they just need him to continue being what he is, which is a reliable hitter to slot into what’s been an impressive lineup for Milwaukee so far this season.
Between the high level of production that Milwaukee is getting from impact guys and the fact that they’ve already built up such a large lead in the division, it’s hard to see the Brewers messing this up as we get into the actual second half of this season. Additionally, the Brewers currently have the joint-fifth-easiest strength-of-schedule going forward at .492 while their divisional rivals in Chicago (.508 remaining strength-of-schedule) and St. Louis (.514) each have tougher roads ahead. The Pirates have a similarly-tough SOS remaining (.507) and while the Reds have a slightly-easier road ahead (.491), they also need to get their act together outside of Elly de la Cruz doing cool stuff on a nightly basis.
All this means is that the Brewers have bucked all the odds and have managed to play themselves into a very good position for another season. It’s all coming up sunshine and roses for the Brewers and the only thing that’s really gone wrong for them here in 2024 has been one of their employees getting caught failing miserably in an attempt to do assassination work as a side job. I didn’t make up a single word of that last sentence, either. I’m not going to hold that insane bit of news against the Brewers though since I believe that this squad is smart enough to not find themselves in such an incredibly hot mess. Either way, y’all should keep an eye on Milwaukee this season as they are once again right in the thick of the Postseason conversation.