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First Round Of John Deere Classic is exciting, historic Birdie-fest first,round,of,john,deere,classic,is,exciting,historic,birdie,fest,sbnation,com,golf,golf-pga-tour

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Welcome to Playing Through’s morning ritual — Golf Talk Today.

Each morning will feature a Golf Talk Today, where the crew will discuss various elements throughout the PGA Tour, LPGA, LIV Golf, and more.

Thursday’s July 4th round provided fireworks at the John Deere Classic.

There were 26 scores of 65 or lower, including four 63s, a 62, 61 and Hayden Springer’s historic 59.

By the end of Day 1, his four-shot lead went down to two after Sami Valimaki shot a 10-under 61.

TPC Deere Run saw 748 birdies and 26 eagles during Thursday’s round, which is quite a lot considering the birdie totals in the last six tournaments.

Total Birdies in the last 6 PGA Tour events

— Charles Schwab Challenge: 1,116 total; 323 in Rd. 1

— RBC Canadian Open: 1,473 total; 487 in Rd. 1

— The Memorial: 750 total; 230 in Rd. 1

— U.S. Open: 1,007 total; 302 in Rd. 1

— Travelers Championship: 1,248 total; 265 in Rd. 1

— Rocket Mortgage Classic: 1,803 total; 587 in Rd. 1

While there were only three full-field events, the number of birdies scored on Thursday at TPC Deere Run is more noticeable. It is the most scored this season through the 30 first rounds played.

The last time the Tour saw this amount of birdies or close to it in the first round this year was at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. There were 683 birdies in the first round and 1,980 total.

Back at the beginning of the season, the Cognizant Classic saw 1,613 total and 572 birdies on Thursday. Last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic was also up there with 587 after one day of play.

The John Deere Classic could have the most birdies scored in a tournament this season, especially if the conditions stay like they are.

ICYMI: Top stories across professional golf

Check out these stories:

Golfers must avoid these 10 mistakes during every round they play

Thursday’s Golf Tips: The 5 best ways to remain cool, hydrated on the golf course

Golf Talk Today: A quick July 4th golf fashion guide to stay trendy but patriotic

All golfers should do these 10 things during every round they play

Justin Rose qualifies for The Open; see who else made it to Royal Troon

LIV Golf’s Sergio Garcia falls short of The Open, frustrated by slow play warning

Savannah Leigh Richardson is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. For more golf coverage, follow us @_PlayingThrough on all major social platforms. You can also follow her on Twitter @SportsGirlSL and Instagram @savannah_leigh_sports.

Yankees’ Aaron Judge is on pace for another record-breaking season yankees,aaron,judge,is,on,pace,for,another,record,breaking,season,sbnation,com,front-page,mlb,dot-com-grid-coverage

Yankees Aaron Judge is on pace for another record breaking season
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Back in 2022, Aaron Judge brought the baseball world back to an era that hadn’t been seen since the late 90s and the early 00s. Those were the days when other shows on ESPN would get cut into whenever a prolific home run hitter was having an at-bat that was deemed to be culturally significant. While Tulane and Houston football fans probably weren’t enthused about having to share half of their screen with one at-bat of a regular season baseball game that they probably didn’t care about, it’s proof that there is nothing like hitting a bunch of dingers that can grab the imagination of fans all over the baseball landscape.

Judge finished 2022 with an astonishing tally of 62 home runs and a scarcely-believable wRC+ of 209 to go along with 11.2 fWAR for the season. His 2022 was so incredible that it was totally understandable when Judge, who was injured and missed time, “fell off” and had a “normal” season in 2023 where he “only” hit 37 home runs and finished with a wRC+ of 174 and 4.8 fWAR over 106 games. That’s still a very fine season for any player in particular but it’s not the type of season that gets ESPN to cut away from college football games in order to show off your live at-bat. With that being said, we might be seeing those days return in September because Aaron Judge is currently in the midst of another absolutely incredible season at the plate for the New York Yankees.

Heading into action on Wednesday, Judge is hitting .321/.440/.718 with a wOBA of .478, an Isolated Power number of .397, a wRC+ of 218 (!!!) with 32 homers and an fWAR of 6.1. There is so much here to talk about that it’s mind boggling. Sir, what are you doing with a .718 slugging percentage? Your wOBA is nearly .500, that is wild. Usually an Isolated Power number of .200 or above is considered to be “serious power hitting” so what are we supposed to make of a guy who nearly has an Isolated Power number of .400? He’s already cleared his 2023 fWAR production with 22 games left to spare, and the fact that he’s already five homers away from matching his 2023 number and the wRC+ being above 200 is all you need to know. Aaron Judge is currently the best hitter on Planet Earth and right now it’s not particularly close between him and the competition.

It is wildly impressive that Aaron Judge is currently on track for another season that could see him finish in double digits as far as fWAR is concerned. Although seasons like that are already rare to begin with, it’s always possible that some of the most talented players in baseball are capable of putting up at least a 10 fWAR season if they can fully lock in for an entire year of crazy production. Mike Trout and Mookie Betts immediately come to mind, and Shohei Ohtani could potentially do it as a two-way player at some time down the road. However, doing it twice would put Aaron Judge in some truly rarefied air as far as baseball greats are concerned. There are many Hall-of-Fame players who never cleared the single season 10 fWAR threshold at any point in their career, so to do it twice (in addition to having a stellar career outside of that) would be as close to punching a ticket to Cooperstown as you could get.

It sounds wild to talk about that while a guy is active but that’s where we’re at with Aaron Judge right now. He is simply hitting at a Hall-of-Fame level at the moment and we also know it’s not just some isolated breakout because he’s already had a season under his belt where he did this before. It also makes you wonder: “Well, if he’s this good and this dangerous at the plate, why is he even getting stuff to hit?” Indeed, Aaron Judge has gotten this hot once again because he’s been getting a level of protection that he’s never had — and as Mike Petriello of MLB.com noted, it’s coming from the front instead of from behind him in the lineup:

He’s seeing somewhat more in-zone fastballs when runners are on as compared to when they aren’t, and he’s seeing more first-pitch in-zone fastballs when runners are on as compared to not, and so on, a dozen other small things that add up to an advantage for him – which is part of why he’s slugging 203 points higher with a runner on base. Why, then, wouldn’t you work around him and risk putting him on? Because more often than ever before, someone is already on.

“What he and Juan are doing as a tandem is hard to wrap your brain around,” said manager Aaron Boone.

So instead of simply giving Aaron Judge first base and calling it a day, managers have decided that they’d be better off actually dealing with Judge and whatever damage he can do with (more than likely) Juan Soto already on the base paths instead of walking Judge and potentially exacerbating the problem if someone behind Judge happens to do the damage. Essentially, since Juan Soto has been so good in front of Judge (and he’s also on 10 fWAR watch for this season, as he’s produced 5.0 fWAR over 83 games so far), it’s been nearly impossible to get Judge in that situation where the bases are clear and you can basically just give Judge the free pass and be done with it. Instead, you get to see scenarios like this one where the Mets were dealing with the Yankees last month.

It’s the top of the eighth, the Yankees are down 9-3 and Judge is at the plate with the bases loaded and two outs on the board. Now, it’s a six-run lead so the Mets have a very solid cushion and can afford to even take a grand slam here and still have a two-run lead. Mets manager Juan Mendoza still admitted after the game to Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated that he was thinking about walking Judge, conceding the run and then testing his luck with Gleyber Torres. Instead, Mendoza decided to simply play the matchup straight up. Aaron Judge responded thusly:

It doesn’t matter if it’s an 0-2 count. It doesn’t matter if the pitch that was thrown was 99 mph. If you throw a pitch to that part of the plate against Aaron Judge, you deserve whatever’s coming to you. Here’s what it looked like on MLB’s Gameday tracker:

Oof.
mlb.com

Now, here’s a collection of Aaron Judge’s zone charts for this season:

judge pitch position graphs

OOF!
baseballsavant.mlb.com

So yeah: Aaron Judge is currently on an incredible heater and he’s doing it in an environment that is conducive for him to keep on seeing pitches right where he wants them instead of being pitched around. The combination of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge has proven to be absolutely lethal for most teams and as a result, Aaron Judge himself is on track to have another otherworldly season at the plate.

I’m not going to guarantee anything but I suppose it really wouldn’t be shocking if some mid-tier college football fans are going to be annoyed with ESPN and Aaron Judge once again in September because it appears that Judge is once again on track for another historically great season. As long as opposing teams feel like they have no choice but to test him, Judge is going to continue dropping the gavel upside their heads.

Why Bronny James getting a 4-year, $7.9M contract from the Lakers is no big deal why,bronny,james,getting,a,year,m,contract,from,the,lakers,is,no,big,deal,sbnation,com,front-page,nba

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The Lakers wasted no time in doing exactly what we knew they were doing: Signing Bronny James to a contract. It just so happened that he became the first second round pick to sign, a four-year deal, and with the new CBA people saw the announcement and began to lose it.

On the surface this seems beyond ludicrous. To be fair, it is the largest contract of all time given to a second round rookie pick — but it has nothing to do with LeBron or nepotism; it’s just the new normal of the 2023 CBA. The minimum annual salary for a 4-year deal is exactly what Bronny received, which means the total money side of this had nothing to do with who his dad is. The truth is that revenues are rising, the salary cap is expanding — and that’s why we keep seeing new records for contracts, with the trickle down effect being that rookies are getting more money as a result.

Pelle Larsson, the first second-rounder to sign this year got a three-year, $5.4 million deal from the Miami Heat — and had they added a fourth year he would have been on the exact same contract as Bronny James.

Now, we can certainly argue about the nature of this deal. A second round pick with as many questions as Bronny getting a contract before Summer League is definitely a perk of being LeBron’s son — but in the grand scheme of things it’s really a minor issue. He’s the No. 55 pick, who probably won’t contribute much, and earning just under $2M a year is relative chump change, commensurate with what the majority of deep rotation guys will make this season.

In the end this is all no harm, no foul. LeBron is going to ride out his career in Los Angeles, play with his son, continue with business ventures in the city — and sail off into the sunset.

DeMar DeRozan is getting squeezed on NBA free agent market, but Lakers still make sense demar,derozan,is,getting,squeezed,on,nba,free,agent,market,but,lakers,still,make,sense,sbnation,com,front-page,nba,nba-free-agency,draftkings

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DeMar DeRozan is still performing at a near NBA All-Star level even after 15 seasons in the league. The veteran wing is coming off three fantastic seasons with the Chicago Bulls where he scored tons of points, produced so many brilliant moments in crunch-time, and rarely turned the ball over. DeRozan is now an unrestricted free agent on the brink of his 35th birthday, and with the Bulls seemingly pivoting to a long overdue rebuild, he’s in search of a new team. There’s only one problem: as almost all of the talent in free agency has already come off the board, there doesn’t seem to be an available fit for DeRozan at a salary slot commensurate with his talent.

There just doesn’t seem to be a market for DeRozan despite being the best unsigned player in the NBA right now. It’s looking like DeRozan may to accept a one-year deal and try to get more money in the summer of 2025, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

“The kind of contract that (DeRozan) might want just is not going to be available,” Woj reported on SportsCenter. “It’s not left out there in the market place. It may not be as appealing to him, but it may look like a one-year deal for him somewhere. Let the market reset next year.”

Woj mentioned the Los Angeles Lakers as a team that could be interested in DeRozan, but only at the right cost. The most the Lakers could offer is the $12.8 million Mid-Level Exception … and even that might require LeBron James to take a discount. That would be a big paycut for a player who clearly outperformed his $27 million average annual salary the last three seasons, but it might be the best offer out there.

For all of his talent, DeRozan remains a difficult player to fit into existing team structures because he needs the ball to be at his best. With the ball in his hands, DeRozan is a master at getting to his spots, knocking down mid-range shots, and drawing a high-volume of free throws. At the same time, a player has be an absolute superstar to demand a very on-ball role and still power team success. DeRozan is very good, but he’s no Luka Doncic or prime James Harden at this point.

In a starring role, DeRozan is good but not quite good enough. In a supporting role, he lacks two essential things that every great role player needs: spot-up shooting and defense.

DeRozan entered the league in 2009 just before the NBA’s three-point boom. It’s remarkable that he’s remained so good in this era despite never really developing a three-point shot. For his career, DeRozan has made 29.6 percent of his threes on only 1.6 attempts per game. He was a little better behind the arc in Chicago, hitting 33.8 percent of his threes on 1.9 attempts per game across his three seasons. At the end of the day, he’s still not a willing enough or good enough shooter to make defenses pay for cheating off him in the halfcourt.

DeRozan just also isn’t very good defensively. He often needs to be hidden on the opposing team’s weakest offensive player. He struggles to get around screens, he’s late on rotations, and he just doesn’t provide much resistance.

Despite his limitations, there’s a world where DeRozan to the Lakers works well on the court for both sides. LeBron James will still get a heavy on-ball diet as he prepares to turn 40 years old, but James has also become an incredible spot-up shooter late in his career. James hit 47.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season on 2.6 attempts per game, per NBA tracking data. When James gets tired, DeRozan can cook and LeBron can space the floor.

The Lakers need to add talent however they can in an improving Western Conference. This is a 47-win team that still only won one playoff game last year. He may not be a perfect fit, but DeRozan would still be a wise addition at this point in the offseason, especially at a discount.

Tobias Harris is an NBA Hall of Famer at the bank tobias,harris,is,an,nba,hall,of,famer,at,the,bank,sbnation,com,front-page,nba,nba-free-agency

Tobias Harris is an NBA Hall of Famer at the
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Tobias Harris might never be considered a great NBA player, but he’s legendary at one thing: getting to the bag. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Harris is getting two years and $52 million from the Pistons in what Woj calls a fit for the young locker room in Detroit. It’s brings up his career earnings to an astronomical amount.

With this new deal, Harris is now projected to earn over $300 million over the course of his 13-year career, all while being a 16.3 point per game scorer in his career. Even in his last year with the Sixers, Harris was averaging 17 points but not really doing much else for someone making near $40 million annually. His ability be one of the highest paid players in the league last year while not contributing to the team very much is what dreams are made of.

Think about this: over the course of his career, Harris’ $302 million is more over the course of his career than Tim Duncan, one of the greatest NBA players of all time.

On a real note, this is why entering the draft at a young age could be seen as a very good thing. Harris entered the NBA at 19 years old and has gotten now three big money deals out of his entire career, an impressive feat considering the long odds of sticking around the NBA. Earning generational wealth three times over is really cool, and his legendary status at his banker is certified.

He joins other professional bag getters such as Bobby Bonilla (Happy Bobby Bonilla day by the way), Sam Bradford and Timofey Mozgov as professional bag getters who will be remembered at the bank. We salute you all.

Astros had another moment on road vs. Mets that I cannot stop thinking is destiny astros,had,another,moment,on,road,vs,mets,that,i,cannot,stop,thinking,is,destiny,sbnation,com,front-page,mlb

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The Houston Astros are going to win the World Series. This is a fact.

You can be mad if you want to, but I am merely the messenger for this Very Important information. Consider that destiny has smiled upon them in the exact same way that it did the last time they hoisted the coveted piece of metal.

Confused? I got you.

The Astros beat the Mets on the road on June 29th and that means a lot

Cards on the table here I am a Houston Astros fan. I cover the Dallas Cowboys here at SB Nation (shout out to Blogging The Boys the GOAT) and that upsets people. Yes, last year’s ALCS was very awkward for me. This is who I am and you will accept me for that or else (I don’t really have an else in mind).

To the point I loved the 2022 Houston Astros because they won the World Series. That season was such vindication and sweet sports honey in every single way and a big part of the journey was a summer trip that took them to New York for road series contests against both the Yankees and Mets.

At the time the New York teams were the most dominant in baseball and yours truly had a great time tweeting about the Astros rolling through Queens and the Bronx relatively untouched. Also let me remind you like my tweet does that Houston’s trip through New York then featured a combined no-hitter from the team led by Cristian Javier, a feat they would replicate in the World Series against the Phillies.

THIS BRINGS US TO JUNE 29TH. OF 2022.

Why does that day matter so much? I’m so glad you asked.

Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 was the final day of that particular Astros/Mets series and it was kind of a super boring game. I remember it very well.

But why do I remember it well? You see in the top of the ninth inning Jason Castro hit a two-run homer for the game’s first runs. Houston won 2-0 and Castro didn’t play at all the rest of that season. My guy walked it off in epic fashion.

You obviously know (because I told you) that the Astros would go on to win the World Series that year and did so against the Phillies as mentioned. Beating Philadelphia was significant as it put an end to Houston’s inability to take down NL East teams in the playoffs (aka the World Series). 2019 saw the Astros lose to the Washington Nationals and 2021 the Atlanta Braves… the NL East was terrifying and the break in the dam was first made by Castro with his home run against the Mets.

I recognize that this is silly but this is sports where things like this matter a lot and basically determine history. These are the rules, I didn’t make them. The June 29th win on the road against the Mets served as the catalyst for the Astros in a significant way that season.

THIS BRINGS US TO JUNE 29TH. OF 2024.

You will recall that last week featured the Yankees and Mets tangoing with one another in the latest edition of the Subway Series. Both New York teams are hot. Things aren’t quite as intense in that sense as they were two years ago, but they are the relative toast of MLB’s town.

The Astros visited Queens last weekend riding a 7-game winning streak themselves which saw them get to .500 for the first time this season (lol). Momentum was up and a loss on Friday night was no big deal given that we are still on the front side of the All-Star break.

Houston and New York squared off on Saturday, June 29th with the Astros looking for a win and unfortunately they fell down early and things were looking rather bleak. This is when a Crazy Sports Thing happened that is clearly and undeniably this year’s Jason Castro moment.

At the top of the eighth inning the Astros were trailing 4-6 and looked set to fall a couple of games below .500. It was a tough scene. Jake Meyers and Jeremy Peña both walked, but then Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubón upped the pressure by failing to do anything. Jake and Jeremy both advanced to put runners on second and third.

This is when My New Guy entered in Trey Cabbage. Pinch-hitting in a big spot, Cabbage needed to do something special in order to keep this rally alive.

Do you ever wonder how certain things happen in sports? Not amazing things, dumb things.

With a full count Cabbage took a pitch for a ball… that the umpire improperly counted. Seriously. We are making counting errors in the year 2024. He mistakenly called it ball 3.

Cabbage was able to rightfully take first base and shortly after a wild pitch sent Jake Meyers home to narrow the deficit to a single run. Jose Altuve walked to load the bases again and then Alex Bregman broke it open. Houston added to their lead in the top of the ninth for more breathing room and got back to .500 on the season.

Baseball is notorious for producing wild and crazy things and these two happened on the same day between the same two teams in the exact same spot on earth. Destiny!

In case you aren’t already convinced… what if I told you that this year’s win in 2024 (the Trey Cabbage game) at Citi Field was the first time that the Astros won there since the 2022 game with Jason Castro?????

THE HOUSTON ASTROS ARE GOING TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES AGAIN.

ESPN reporter fires back at Bronny James nepotism complaints: ‘The NBA is full of nepotism’ espn,reporter,fires,back,at,bronny,james,nepotism,complaints,the,nba,is,full,of,nepotism,sbnation,com,front-page,nba,nba-draft,draftkings,dot-com-grid-coverage

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As expected, the topic of nepotism came up during the broadcast of the 2024 NBA Draft as the inevitable selection of Bronny James by the Los Angeles Lakers neared. And with Bronny’s agent, Rich Paul, reportedly telling any team trying to draft him that LeBron James’ son will play in Australia if he’s selected against his will, it’s no surprise that some unfamiliar with how common that specific agent tactic is would get upset.

But NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski had a message for viewers watching ESPN at home: Anyone crying about nepotism influencing the Bronny pick should turn their eye to the entire league, not just LeBron James, Bronny and the Lakers.

Woj is right. From Thanasis Antetokounmpo with the Bucks to Chris Smith with the Knicks back in the day, one can argue there are plenty of cases of NBA roster spots throughout history going to a slightly less talented player as a favor to keep their more heralded sibling happy. And it’s not just rosters: NBA coaching staffs are littered with sons of current or former head coaches (or even players’ fathers), and front offices frequently populated with the progeny of previous execs… not to mention, often, the owners’ kids as well.

Plus, it’s not like Bronny is totally unqualified. Previous to the cardiac arrest he suffered in 2023, he was widely mocked as a first-round pick, or even a lottery selection. And even after a mostly underwhelming season at USC, our own Ricky O’Donnell still gave the Lakers’ selection of him a B grade:

James’ freshman year at USC started with a terrifying heart episode early in the offseason, and he never really found his footing after that. James is short for a guard at 6’1.5 barefoot, but he has long arms, a strong chest, and a good mentality for a role player. James isn’t a big scorer, but he fights for loose balls, defends bigger players, and spaces the floor as a three-point shooter. He needs to shoot it at a high level to stick in the NBA, but he’s shown enough at the high school level at Sierra Canyon to have a chance to stick.

None of this is to say nepotism is good. It’s just to say that this situation is only exceptional nepotism by NBA standards in one sense: We’ve literally never seen an NBA player good enough, for long enough, to not only play with or against their son, but to be talented enough still to push their team to draft him.

But while LeBron and Bronny are 1/1 in that respect, family members helping each other get jobs in the NBA, either on a roster or in the coaching and executive ranks? That’s nothing new, so we shouldn’t act like it is.

Adrian Wojnarowski roasting Stephen A. Smith is the highlight of Day 2 of 2024 NBA Draft adrian,wojnarowski,roasting,stephen,a,smith,is,the,highlight,of,day,of,nba,draft,sbnation,com,front-page,nba,nba-draft,draftkings

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For the first time in history, the NBA Draft is taking place over two nights.

Ahead of the second round of the 2024 NBA Draft, the gang on ESPN got together to ponder a number of questions. Atop that list? Where might Bronny James come off the board? After falling out of the first round — as was largely expected — James is waiting to hear where his NBA journey begins.

As is his father, LeBron James.

That led Stephen A. Smith to ponder a once-in-a-lifetime scenario: Bronny coming off the board during the second round to the New York Knicks, and LeBron joining the Knicks on a league minimum salary to play with his son, and the rest of the loaded Knicks roster.

However, Adrian Wojnarowski had a rebuttal question.

Who would Stephen A. Smith take such a big paycut for?

That left Smith — who is usually ready with an answer for anything — searching for a response.

You can see the entire exchange in this below clip, with Wojnarowski’s question coming in at the 1:14 mark:

Of course there is some context that is helpful here, as Smith is entering the final year of his current contract at ESPN. Smith has reportedly received an offer in the $18 million range annually, but is reportedly seeking a contract in the neighborhood of $25 million. All of that context makes this clip even better.

We have 28 picks left to go — the first two picks are now in for the second round — but it might be hard to top this moment tonight.

Zach Edey turning down NBA Draft green room to celebrate with his Purdue teammates is so cool zach,edey,turning,down,nba,draft,green,room,to,celebrate,with,his,purdue,teammates,is,so,cool,sbnation,com,front-page,nba,college-basketball,nba-draft,draftkings

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The decision by the Memphis Grizzlies to take Zach Edey with the No. 9 pick in the NBA Draft was easily the most divisive decision of the top-10. To some, Edey is a prolific college powerhouse, a dominant talent who was a no-brainer, others see a physically-limited, low-upside center who will be eaten alive by the NBA’s athleticism. But no matter which side of the fence you fall on, there’s no debating that Edey is a genuinely great dude.

This shined through on Thursday night, when instead of accepting an invite to The Barclay’s Center to be a part of the pomp and circumstance of the draft, instead Edey spent the evening with his former Purdue teammates and watched it all unfold on TV.

Edey informed the NBA last week that he wouldn’t be attending the draft in person, turning down his green room invite. He told league officials that he was going to stay and watch with his coaches, teammates, family and friends at Purdue — which included Mason Gillis, who transferred to Duke last month, but was still there to celebrate Edey’s big moment.

It’s aspects like this of Edey’s personality which will make him a fan-favorite in Memphis. A true throwback center in an era of stretch players, time will tell whether the experiment will work — but there’s no doubt that this kid has his priorities in the right place. Let’s be honest for a second too: Staying home was exceedingly smart.

Speculation on where Edey might land ranged from the late teens, all the way out of the first round. Obviously the story ended well for the Purdue big man, but by staying away from the green room he dodged the embarrassment of waiting all night to hear his name called only to be met with silence, as Duke center Kyle Filipowski did on Wednesday night when he fell out of the first round.

The new locale also allowed for Edey to get the full “Art but Sports” treatment, something he wouldn’t have likely gotten in NYC.

It’s difficult not to root for this kid, and all the players who got selected on Wednesday night. Memphis got a good one.

The Cricket World Cup is India’s to lose the,cricket,world,cup,is,india,s,to,lose,sbnation,com,front-page,cricket

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The semi-finals of the T20 Cricket World Cup begin on Wednesday, and at least on paper it looks like 2024 is India’s tournament to lose.

Unpredictability was the story of the USA/West Indies World Cup with some of the sport’s most dominant teams falling by the wayside in the group stages to set up a rather unlikely final four. Naturally the most attention is on India, who have gone a perfect 6-0 in the tournament with an astronomical +2.01 net run rate in the second group stage — but that doesn’t mean they’ll win by default.

So let’s take a look at each of the final four in this tournament and see if anyone has the firepower to stop the favorites.

Afghanistan

Key strength: Rahmanullah Gurbaz
Key weakness: Bowling

This might seem like a surprise for the uninitiated, but Afghanistan is a legitimate powerhouse in T20. While they lack the staying power to be in the test match elite, the national thrives in short-format cricket where their prolific batting can shine.

The biggest difference in this World Cup to those past is Rahmanullah Gurbaz. The 22-year-old phenom can be inconsistent, but when his bat is hot it’s very difficult to stop him. This game to the fore against Australia in the second group stage when he finished with a ludicrously efficient 60 runs off 49 balls, despite facing the best of the Aussie bowling attack. Gurbaz leads the World Cup in batting average at over 40 runs per game, and that makes him the ultimate x-factor.

That said, Afghanistan really struggle to stop their opponents from putting up big scores. This team allowed the West Indies to score 218, India put up 181 — and against the top teams in this tournament that just doesn’t lead to a recipe for success.

This team has the potential to beat South Africa in their semi-final, but after that it’s difficult to see them getting past either England or India.

England

Key strength: Batting depth
Key weakness: Bowling

England feels like a team that’s almost there, but still has a little ways to go before they can truly take the step needed to be world champions. When it comes to scoring the teams has ample depth with Harry Brook, Jos Butler and Phil Salt all being top-tier T20 batsmen, but the big issue is a lack of bowling economy.

In this tournament the England bowlers have failed to place in the Top 15 in any statistical area. Their economy has been average, there’s been no signature performance against an elite team, and the best performances from the attack have come at the expense of b-tier cricket teams like Australia and Oman.

The best way to characterize the British bowling is that it’s good enough to reach the semi-finals. However, even with their battling depth they drew a short straw by landing India in the draw. It takes a complete game that can win in every phase to best India, and right now the bowling just isn’t up to par.

India

Key strength: Bowling depth
Key weakness: Pitch management

There’s no doubt that India had a few scares on their way to the semi finals. A narrow win over Pakistan and a near-loss to the United States showed some notable holes in their armor — but it was much more about struggling to adapt to a questionable pitch in Nassau County.

India has all the batting needed to handle any team in the world, but up to this point they haven’t really needed any run-scoring heroics. The bowling attack has been so good that it’s been easy to get trapped in a vortex against them, struggling to mount any kind of run total.

Jasprit Bumrah and Arshdeep Singh in particular have been phenomenal in this tournament, and represent the best 1-2 bowling attack in this tournament. When paired with the scoring potential of Hardik Pandya and Rohit Sharma it makes for a team poised to win it all.

So long as the next two pitches are easy for India to read they should be able to coast to the finals, where they’ll almost assuredly meet their biggest competition …

South Africa

Key strength: Quinton de Kock
Key weakness: Lack of competition

On paper South Africa have a lot of the traits needed to hang with India and win the World Cup, but the issue is that despite being so deep in this tournament their potential is semi-unknown.

It’s not their fault, but South Africa have strolled through this tournament thanks to an unbelievably easy schedule that has seen them only play one top-tier team (England) in seven games. Outside of that match they’ve been able to feast on the likes of Sri Lanka, Netherlands, Bangladesh, Nepal, and USA. Playing the West Indies was a push, but even then we really don’t know what this team is capable of because of who they’ve dodged.

We do know, however, that Quinton de Kock is an elite T20 batter with a knack for knowing when to score in a hurry, and when he needs to play conservative cricket. A big innings from de Kock could mean South African can win against anyone, but there’s no a lot to hang your hat on here.

Predictions

  • South Africa defeats Afghanistan
  • India defeats England
  • India defeats South Africa to win the 2024 T20 World Cup