Tag: al

The Houston Astros are once again alive and well in the AL West the,houston,astros,are,once,again,alive,and,well,in,the,al,west,sbnation,com,front-page,mlb

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It wasn’t all that long ago when I was using this space to talk about how the Houston Astros had yet to really lift off this season and were spinning their wheels in the mud. With most of their rotation dropping left-and-right and their hitters underperforming while combined with the strong start from the Seattle Mariners, it was getting to the point where there were already rumors that the Astros could be considering selling once they got to the trade deadline. It was that rough.

Well, here we are a month later and all of a sudden the questions have changed. Instead of wondering whether or not the Astros are going to fall off and start selling, the question now is whether or not the Mariners can hang on to what was once the largest divisional lead in the AL West. Houston has gone 20-10 over their last 30 games and are now three games over .500 and right in the thick of things in the playoff race while Seattle has gone 16-14 in their last 30 and 3-7 in their last 10 to be specific.

As a result of this sudden change in fortune, the Astros are now only two games behind the Mariners in the AL West and FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds reflect this as well — Houston now has a 60 percent chance of making the Postseason with a 45 percent shot at winning the division again. This is after the Astros finished June 5 with a 40 percent chance of returning to the playoffs with only a 24 percent shot at winning the division. The Astros are even being given more of a shot to end up with a first-round bye (10 percent) than the Mariners currently are (8.3 percent). The boogeyman of this division is well and truly alive once again, to the point where the word “destiny” is being bandied about around here.

So what’s behind this sudden shift in form for both teams? Part of this can be attributed to the natural ebb-and-flow of the long marathon that is baseball’s regular season but at the same time, for things to change this quickly for both teams is still a bit whiplash-inducing. Usually it takes a while to see a shift like this and maybe it would warrant more attention had this shift happened in say, September instead of in June and July. With that being said, it’s still very fascinating to see just how quickly the Astros managed to turn things around and conversely it’s a bit concerning to see this getting away from the Mariners like it appears to be.

The fuel that’s been propelling the Astros back towards the top of the AL West has been the fact that their offense has stepped up their game. I mentioned that the offense wasn’t the reason why they were struggling last month but there was still room for improvement for Houston when it came to hitting the ball. Unsurprisingly, Houston’s lineup did eventually revitalize itself and has been hitting .274/.329/.445 as a collective since June 1. Additionally, they’ve put together a .335 wOBA and a team wRC+ of 119 since the start of June, which is tied for the seventh-best number in all of baseball during that period.

The main man pushing Houston’s revitalization has been Yordan Álvarez, who has absolutely unleashed fury upon opposing pitchers since the start of last month. For the season, Yordan has 2.8 fWAR — however, he’s produced 2.0 of that fWAR since June 1 alone. Álvarez has been hitting .366/.466/.796 since that aforementioned date with a wOBA of .513, 10 home runs over 118 plate appearances and a wRC+ of 240. Folks, that’s Gunnar Henderson territory. Shoot, that’s Aaron Judge territory. It also helps that the usual suspects like José Altuve (152 wRC+ since June 1) and Alex Bregman (128 wRC+ in that same span) have stepped up and are hitting like most baseball observers would expect them to do so. The Astros are a tough team to deal with at the plate but that’s always been the case since their rebuild from the mid-2010s started to pay off.

What makes this return to form for Houston’s offense so impressive is that it’s happening without Kyle Tucker. Tucker went on the IL with a shin contusion back in early June and to let you know just how rough things were going for the rest of the Astros, he’s missed every game since June 3 and he’s still Houston’s leader in On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, wOBA, xwOBA and wRC+ and he’s also still the joint leader in home runs and joint-second place in stolen bases.

Tucker has been the best player in the lineup for the Astros this season and losing him could’ve been a death knell for Houston’s lineup if the rest of the Astros continued to limp along at the plate. Instead, players have been stepping their game up left-and-right in Tucker’s absence and now Astros fans are surely dreaming of what this lineup will look like once Tucker returns and gets this offense working at full strength again.

Houston’s pitching during this span has been intriguing to say the least. This should definitely be the position that is weighing down the Astros since they’ve lost two of their starters for the season and have another one who is currently on the shelf and could potentially lose out on their vesting option in 2025. Instead, the Astros have kind of just kept it pushing in that regard and Hunter Brown’s performances since June 1 has somewhat reflected what the Astros have done on the mound during that span.

As a staff since the start of June, the Astros have an incredible ERA- of 85 — tied for the third-best in all of baseball! Weirdly enough, Houston’s FIP- during that same span has been 104, which is clearly middle-of-the-road. Then you look at what Hunter Brown has been doing during that time and suddenly his ERA- of 25 and a FIP- of 73 since June 1 suddenly makes a little more sense. Combine his performance with Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco doing their best to keep the rotation afloat and Houston’s rotation is definitely coming together to produce something that’s greater than the sum of their parts at the moment. They’re making it happen and their return to the good side of .500 has made that clear.

While it’s not exactly time to say that the Astros are “back,” they’re absolutely alive and definitely kicking again. General Manager Dana Brown’s faith in his squad is being repaid and suddenly his confidence that Houston would be buying at the deadline is looking clairvoyant instead of simply being the right thing to say in GM-speak. While it’s never really wise to call time on any team’s season during the first half, this is also a bit of a reminder that when it comes to teams like the Astros, the time to count them out doesn’t come until they’ve actually been mathematically eliminated.

Speaking of GM’s, the onus is now on Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto to help revive the Mariners. While their pitching staff is doing just fine, it is plainly obvious that Seattle needs hitting. With guys like Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger and even the “Big Dumper” himself Cal Raleigh all currently doing some serious underperforming at the plate, their lineup needs multiple sparks and they need it in the worst way. Seattle’s pitching should still be good enough to help keep them in the playoff conversation but if they keep struggling at the plate like they have, it won’t be long before the boogeyman from Space City catches them for good.

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal already has eyes on the AL Cy Young award tigers,ace,tarik,skubal,already,has,eyes,on,the,al,cy,young,award,sbnation,com,front-page,mlb,dot-com-grid-coverage

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The past 10 seasons for the Detroit Tigers has been a bit of a journey in the wilderness. The 2014 season ended up being the end of an era for the Tigers, as their four-year run of playoff appearances from 2011 through 2014 ended with two ALCS appearances and an American League Pennant victory in 2012. Once that window closed for Detroit, it slammed shut and outside of one winning season in 2016 that saw the Tigers come up three games short of earning a Wild Card spot, there hasn’t been much to get excited about for fans of the hometown team in the Motor City.

As of right now, the Tigers have a tough road ahead of them if they’re planning on returning to October baseball. They’re a distant fourth in the AL Central with their divisional rivals Kansas City and Minnesota currently occupying two of the three Wild Card spots in the AL. They are 33-35 and 3.5 games behind in the race for the final and are currently lumped in with the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays when it comes to owning similar winning percentages. This is a long season with plenty of peaks and valleys but Detroit still a bit of an outside contender at this point – FanGraphs’ playoff odds is giving the Tigers a 12 percent shot at making the Postseason as a Wild Card with their overall odds of making the playoffs in general at 15 percent.

Needless to say, the Tigers aren’t exactly the favorites to upset the apple cart in baseball this season. With that being said, there’s one very good reason to pay attention to what Detroit has going on this season and that’s the mound exploits of Tarik Skubal. Skubal is coming off of a 2022 season that saw him establish himself as a bonafide major league starter with an ERA- of 90 and a FIP- of 75 over 117.2 innings. He followed that up by emerging as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball despite missing the first three months of the 2023 season due to a flexor tendon injury that ended his 2022 campaign. Once Skubal did finally return to the mound on July 4, 2023, he hit the ground running and wasted no time in establishing himself as a true ace. When I say that he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, I mean it – Skubal led all pitchers in fWAR with 3.3 after he returned to the mound, with Spencer Strider in second place after he produced 2.8 fWAR over that same span.

With all this in mind, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that Tarik Skubal has emerged as a Cy Young candidate now that he’s been fully healthy here in 2024. As good as Skubal was to finish the 2023 season, he’s been even better this season. Skubal finished 2023 with an ERA- of 65 and a FIP- of 47 and both of those numbers are well above average when it comes to starting pitchers. He’s on track to leave those numbers in the dust here in 2024, as he’ll be heading into his start tonight against the Astros with an ERA- of 49 and a FIP- of 54. He’ll also be heading into Houston coming off of his most recent start where he made it through 6.2 innings with five hits and two walks for a grand total of just one run allowed and 10 strikeouts to boot. It was also the 11th time in 13 starts this season where the 27-year-old lefty gave up two runs or less. Needless to say, this man has been absolutely dealing all season.

What makes Tarik Skubal so incredibly tough to deal with is the fact that he’s got five pitches in his bag of tricks and batters have zero idea as to how to actually consistently hit his stuff. His best pitch has been his four-seam fastball and it’s a pitch that has slowly-but-surely been ramping up in velocity over the course of his career. He may have finally peaked in velocity in his most recent start, where he hit 101.7 mph on the radar gun. As this article from Jason Beck of MLB.com mentioned, it was one of the fastest pitches thrown by a starter this season and it was part of a deliberate effort on his part to ramp up his velocity on his heater. With that being said, it’s not just his fastball that hitters have to worry about. His sinker has been sitting at 96 mph – the same speed as his average fastball. Hitters have been bewitched by both pitches, as evidenced by the opposition batting average of .205 against his sinker and .169 against his fastball.

Opposing hitters haven’t fared well against his other three pitches, either. His changeup is his second-most used pitch behind his fastball and hitters are only hitting .223 against it. He also has a slider that he’s commonly used and it only has a .194 batting average against it. Finally, he’s thrown 57 knuckle curveballs this season and you are not going to find a video of anybody getting a hit against it so far in 2024. That’s right: The opposing batting average against his knuckle curve is .000. Granted, it does have an Expecting Batting Average of .243 but the good news for Skubal is that that xBA is by far the highest of any of his four pitches – his fastball has an xBA of .205, his changeup’s xBA is at .219, the sinker is at .191 and the slider’s xBA is microscopic at .161. Simply put, it hasn’t really mattered what Tarik Skubal has been throwing out there – opposing hitters have had an absolute devil of a time trying to deal with any one of them.

If Skubal needs to miss a bat, his changeup (45 percent whiff rate) and slider (35 percent whiff rate) have been his go-to in that regard. If he needs an out, any one of his four main pitches will do as his highest Put Away percentage lies at 31 percent with his changeup while the lowest of those four pitches is 21 percent with his four-seamer. He’s got nasty stuff in his arsenal and he’s throwing all of his pitches with a ton of confidence at the moment. Taking all of this into account, it’s easy to understand why he’s starting to get attention and even early talks of Cy Young Award contention here in June.

There are also surely some rumors floating around that Tarik Skubal could be traded at the deadline but those rumors appear to simply be rumors. Either way, Skubal isn’t the type of pitcher that should be traded if you’re a team that still harbors any type of playoff hopes. Jim Bowden of The Athletic stated that while the Tigers may listen to offers on the likes of Jack Flaherty, Skubal’s going nowhere.

Again, while the Tigers aren’t exactly near the top of the standings, they still figure to be right in the middle of the pack when it comes to the Wild Card chase and as long as that’s the case, Skubal should remain in a Tigers uniform. If the Tigers are going to return to Postseason relevancy in the near future, then that likely requires having Skubal still in a Tigers uniform while they make their return to October. Detroit has a gem at the top of their rotation and this could very well be the season where the entire baseball world becomes extremely aware of Tarik Skubal and what he can do on the mound.